the case for riding cold: j-Mac’s best chance on Romantic Warrior

Last 20 seasons data shows that Romantic Warrior must adapt to win from barrier 11.

​Romantic Warrior, the Dany Shum trained six-year-old Acclamation gelding, has won nearly HK$120 million in prize money over his 12 wins from his 17 starts in Hong and Australia.  Romantic Warrior created history in the most dramatic fashion at Moonee Valley, becoming the first Hong Kong horse to win the prestigious Group One Cox Plate (2,040m).
 
Romantic Warrior will be an odds-on favorite to win Sunday’s Group 1 feature -- the Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup against his rivals Voyage Bubble and Straight Arron.  After all, he has won 6 races from his 7 starts over 2000 meters and will be ridden by James McDonald (nicknamed J-Mac) who was crowned world’s best jockey by Longines in 2022.  However, the data shows that Romantic Warrior will have his work cut out for him unless he adapts his running style.
 
We analyzed over 350 races run over the Sha Tin 2000-meter course over the past 20 seasons and discovered that horses drawn 11 have a low 4%-win chance. 

Table 1: Draw Statistics from the start of the 2003-2004 season for all 2000-meter races.

This poor win rate can be explained when you consider that the 2000-meter starting point is less than 100 meters away from the first bend.

​Romantic Warrior’s work seems be further cut out for him if we focus on the 90 races over the A+3 course-- not a single winner has jumped from barrier 11. 

Table 2: Draw Statistics from the start of the 2003-2004 season for all 2000-meter races run over the A+3 course.

This is because, with the course in the A+3 position, the inner rail is fenced off for 3 meters.  This makes navigating around the oval shaped course longer – to compensate for this, HKJC moves the starting gates about 19 meters ahead which makes the first turn come up even quicker when starting from the A+3 course as compared to the A course.
 
Further complicating his chances is Romantic Warrior’s running style in which he likes to run close to the speed.  In his 7 starts over the 2000-meter Sha Tin course, Romantic Warrior has never been beyond 4th after running the first 400 meters.  Also, he has never been beyond 5th after running the first 800 meters and has never been beyond 6th after running the first 1200 meters. 

Table 3: Romantic Warrior’s running positions for all 2000-meter races.

Even in his barrier trials, Romantic Warrior is quick to jump from the gates and finds himself in the front of the field.  In fact, he has run in the first half of the field (most times without cover) in his Hong Kong trials.

Table 4: Romantic Warrior’s running positions during his barrier trials.

If we further analyze the small subset of the 70 runners (that all lost) that were drawn barrier 11 on the A+3 2000-meter course and that finished a length or less off the winner, we immediately notice a pattern – all 4 of these “respectable” finishers” came from way off the pace.  Not a single horse was closer than 10th after running the first 400 meters.  Also, these “respectable” finishers” were 9th or beyond after running the first 800 meters and were 10th or beyond after running the first 1200 meters. 

Table 6: How did the “respectable finishers” over the 2000-meter A+3 course run.

The HKJC SpeedPRO speed map has Romantic Warrior mapped 2 back and 2 out midfield and puntingform.com.au has him identified as an on-pace runner.   J-Mac has the best win percentage (at 23.5%) over the past 20 seasons for the 2000-meter Sha Tin course (when we consider riders with over 10 rides).  Either Romantic Warrior will have to defy statistics to win or must be ridden in a conservative manner – we recommend riding him stone cold.